Just 0.009 seconds decided pole position in Mexico City on Saturday. Hamilton produced a lap of 1:16.514 on his final Q3 attempt, narrowly beating Mercedes driver Russell into second place. Charles Leclerc completed an impressive qualifying result for Ferrari in third. It was Hamilton’s 105th career pole and his first since the 2023 Hungarian Grand Prix.
Hamilton springs a surprise after technical setbacks
Ferrari had already demonstrated their competitiveness during practice. Leclerc topped both the first and second sessions, while Hamilton lost valuable track time on Friday because of an engine problem. As a result, the Briton was unable to complete a planned long run.
Those setbacks appeared to have little effect on his qualifying performance. Hamilton set the fastest time in Q1, briefly came under pressure in Q2 and then delivered when it mattered most in the final session.
“It’s something incredibly special,” the 41-year-old said afterwards. His first pole for Ferrari reminded him of his childhood, when he followed Michael Schumacher’s achievements with the Scuderia.
Hamilton will lead the field away despite Leclerc having been more than four tenths faster after the opening runs in Q3. The Monegasque was unable to make a decisive improvement on his final attempt and expressed frustration with the preparation of his tyres.
Russell also struggled to find the ideal balance in his Mercedes. Only after adjusting his tyre warm-up procedure, helped by falling track temperatures, was he able to make a significant improvement. His final time of 1:16.523 left him a mere nine thousandths short.
Verstappen penalised as McLaren endure a frustrating session
The top five drivers were separated by just 0.193 seconds in qualifying. Max Verstappen finished fourth, ahead of Kimi Antonelli in fifth and Lando Norris in sixth.
However, Verstappen faces a one-place grid penalty following a collision with Liam Lawson during second practice. Antonelli consequently moves up to fourth on the starting grid. Lawson also drops one position to ninth, while Arvid Lindblad will start eighth.
McLaren, meanwhile, endured a disappointing Saturday. Norris had topped Q2 but could not find the necessary improvement in the final session. Team-mate Oscar Piastri suffered an even more frustrating afternoon, being eliminated in Q2 and qualifying only 13th.
“The new tyres just had no grip,” the Australian complained afterwards. He explained that the handling of his McLaren had suddenly changed completely.
Fernando Alonso also had a difficult afternoon. The Spaniard was forced to park his Aston Martin in Q1 because of a suspected issue with the hybrid system.
Ferrari well placed to win, but crucial questions remain
Hamilton, Russell and Leclerc emerge from qualifying as the leading contenders for victory. With two cars starting inside the top three, Ferrari could also use their strategic options to put additional pressure on Mercedes.
However, the leading teams are so closely matched that tyre strategy could ultimately determine the outcome. Pirelli have brought the C3, C4 and C5 compounds to Mexico, with Friday’s long runs indicating noticeable degradation, particularly on the softer tyres.
That leaves both one-stop and two-stop strategies potentially viable. Hamilton’s interrupted Friday programme also means he lacks valuable long-run data because of his technical problems.
The start promises another crucial moment. The run from pole position to the braking zone for Turn 1 measures approximately 830 metres, giving Russell and Leclerc an excellent opportunity to challenge Hamilton before the opening corner.
Antonelli needs just two more points to become world champion
The weekend’s biggest prize could nevertheless be decided independently of the race winner. Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers’ championship with 365 points following his ninth victory of the season in Austin. His Mercedes team-mate Russell trails by 123 points, with Hamilton another two points further back.
With only 100 points available after Mexico, Antonelli needs just two more points to secure the championship. A ninth-place finish would be enough for the 20-year-old to clinch the title regardless of his rivals’ results.
The Italian could even become champion without scoring a point, provided neither Russell nor Hamilton wins the race. Both challengers therefore need victory to keep the title battle alive under those circumstances.
Antonelli admitted after qualifying that he had felt more nervous than usual with the championship potentially within reach. He had also recently been weakened by a fever.
Given his fourth-place starting position, the prospect of the title being decided this weekend appears particularly strong. Antonelli would become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history and the first Italian to win the drivers’ title since Alberto Ascari in 1953.
Hamilton, meanwhile, is chasing his second victory of the season and an opportunity to confirm Ferrari’s recent resurgence. The Mexico City Grand Prix gets underway on Sunday at 20:00 Central European Time, with 71 laps awaiting the drivers.
