The situation leaves little room for tactical caution. A victory by three goals or more would send Sturm directly into the play-offs, while a 2-0 win would take the tie to extra time. Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, can even afford to lose by one goal and still progress.
Fenerbahçe clearly superior in the first leg
Sturm gave a respectable account of themselves in Istanbul but offered far too little attacking threat. Fenerbahçe controlled the match for long periods and took the lead through Anderson Talisca after just ten minutes. Shortly before half-time, new signing Mason Greenwood made it 2-0 following a well-worked corner routine.
The numbers underlined the Turkish side’s superiority. Fenerbahçe had 72 per cent possession and registered 17 shots, compared to just five for Sturm. The Expected Goals figures were even more revealing at 1.30 to 0.16. Goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov prevented an even heavier defeat with several excellent saves.
Sturm’s main task in the return leg will therefore be to create significantly more situations in the final third without leaving themselves exposed to Fenerbahçe’s enormous individual quality on the counterattack. An early goal for the visitors would turn an already difficult challenge into a monumental one.
Weiper pushes his case with a brace
Sturm were able to restore some confidence in the Bundesliga at the weekend. The Graz side beat TSV Hartberg 2-0, although both goals came after Konstantin Schopp was sent off following a second yellow card. Substitute Nelson Weiper scored both goals, with fellow replacement Simon Seidl providing both assists.
That performance has at least strengthened Weiper’s case for more playing time against Fenerbahçe. Szymon Włodarczyk started alongside Seedy Jatta in the first leg, but Sturm struggled to get their forwards into dangerous shooting positions. Whether Ingolitsch starts with Weiper this time or again uses the German U21 international as an impact substitute is one of the key selection questions.
Otar Kiteishvili remains unavailable. The Georgian key player has been struggling with a calf problem since the start of the season, and there is still no confirmed date for his return.
Ingolitsch does not want Sturm to attack recklessly
Despite trailing by two goals, Sturm do not intend to throw everything forward from the opening whistle. Ingolitsch has stressed the importance of finding the right balance. A first goal for the hosts, however, could completely change the dynamic of the tie.
Weiper summed up Sturm’s hopes after his brace in Hartberg: “If we score a goal, whether it’s in the first minute or the 85th, anything is possible.”
Sturm can also draw confidence from their strong European home record. They have won six of their last eight international matches on home soil and lost only one. Against Fenerbahçe, however, they will need an exceptional performance – and, above all, far more attacking penetration than they showed in Istanbul.
Fenerbahçe travel without three players
Fenerbahçe also have personnel problems to deal with. Jayden Oosterwolde was injured during the first leg and will miss the match in Graz. First-choice goalkeeper Ederson has also remained at home because of a viral infection, while winger Anthony Musaba is unavailable due to physical problems. Mert Günok is therefore expected to start in goal again, with Archie Brown the obvious replacement for Oosterwolde on the left.
Otherwise, coach İsmail Kartal can call upon his numerous stars. Milan Škriniar and Nathan Aké are expected to form the central defensive partnership, while N’Golo Kanté, Mattéo Guendouzi, Marco Asensio, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Greenwood and Talisca are among the options further forward.
Kartal dismissed the suggestion that Fenerbahçe would simply try to protect their advantage: “We are not here to defend the result. We are here to qualify by playing our own game.”
The Turkish side also enjoyed a small advantage in their preparation. While Sturm were in Bundesliga action away to Hartberg on Saturday, the new Süper Lig season does not begin until next weekend.
Winners face Sparta or Lyon
The winners of the tie will face either Sparta Prague or Olympique Lyon in the Champions League play-offs. Sparta won the first leg 2-1 at home, with the return match also taking place on Tuesday evening. The first play-off leg is scheduled for 18 August, followed by the return fixture on 26 August.
The European campaign will not end for the losing side either. As Sturm and Fenerbahçe are competing in the League Path, whoever is eliminated is already guaranteed a place in the league phase of the Europa League.
That safety net allows Sturm to take a relatively fearless approach on Tuesday. Their Europa League place is secure, but to keep their Champions League hopes alive they now need one of those special European nights in Liebenau – ideally with an early goal to make a major upset seem possible.
