The equation could hardly be simpler: after the 2-2 draw in Edinburgh, Rapid need a home win to advance, while another draw would send the tie into extra time. Kick-off is at 18:45. For the first time since the start of the season, head coach Johannes Hoff Thorup had a full week to prepare his team for a single match after the Bundesliga fixture against Salzburg was postponed. Apart from the ill Jonas Auer, Jakob Schöller, who is still in rehabilitation, and the long-term absentees, the Dane has almost his entire squad available.
Rapid allowed very little in Edinburgh
The first leg left Rapid with mixed feelings. The Viennese controlled large parts of the first half, deservedly took the lead through Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao and appeared to have the game firmly under control. After the break, however, Hearts needed only a brief strong spell to turn the match around completely: Raux-Yao diverted a cross into his own net before James Wilson caught Niklas Hedl out with a long-range strike seven minutes later to make it 2-1.
Only the introductions of Nikolaus Wurmbrand and Nicolas Bajlicz put Rapid back on track. In the 79th minute, Bajlicz set up fellow substitute Wurmbrand for the equaliser.
The deeper numbers also give Rapid reason for confidence ahead of the second leg. Hearts managed only around 0.18 expected goals in the first half and remained largely harmless over the full 90 minutes. Rapid, meanwhile, produced six shots on target from only nine attempts and enjoyed 61 per cent possession. The visitors looked the more mature side for long stretches, particularly in controlled build-up play.
Thorup is looking to build on precisely that. “With our style of play, we can dominate them – we have already shown that,” the Rapid coach said before the return leg. At the same time, his team must become “a little more dangerous in front of goal”. The Dane is also happy to accept the favourites’ tag, saying he views it as a compliment that Rapid are expected to progress.
Hearts still believe in their chances
Rapid should nevertheless not underestimate the Scottish runners-up. Hearts coach Wouter Vrancken described the return leg as a “massive game” and expects a special atmosphere in Vienna. On paper, he sees his team as underdogs, but believes that means little. His players already showed in the first leg that they can put Rapid under pressure and dominate phases of the match.
Vrancken also has options to make changes. James Wilson’s excellent goal in Edinburgh strengthened his case for a starting role in attack. Laurent Mendy is available again after injury, while left-back Harry Milne remains sidelined. Hearts have also been practising penalties regularly in recent weeks in preparation for a possible shoot-out.
The biggest concern remains their defence. Hearts have conceded ten goals in their two European away matches so far this season. Sturm Graz beat them 4-0, while Benfica won 6-1. In front of a noisy Vienna crowd, Vrancken’s team must avoid the defensive collapses that have accompanied them throughout their European campaign.
Plenty at stake financially as well
For Rapid, this is about more than simply securing another autumn of European football. Qualification for the league phase guarantees €3.17 million in starting money alone. On top of that come the value pillar, revenue from three home matches and performance-related payments: every win in the league phase is worth a further €400,000, while a draw brings €133,000. Further bonuses are paid according to the final league position and progression into the knockout rounds.
Including the guaranteed money and foreseeable matchday revenue, qualification could already generate gross income approaching €7 million for Rapid. Sporting success in the league phase would increase that figure significantly. For an Austrian club, the financial gap between qualification and elimination is therefore substantial.
The sporting circumstances nevertheless favour Rapid. The Viennese have won all four of their competitive home matches this season, most recently thrashing GAK 8-0. Thorup also has several interesting options from the bench – and that squad depth already proved decisive in Edinburgh when Rapid fought back to draw 2-2.
Other Austrian clubs in action on Thursday
The next two Austrian decisions follow on Thursday. Salzburg host Mjällby AIF at 19:00 and take an excellent position into the return leg after their late 1-0 win in Sweden. At 20:30, FK Austria Wien will attempt to overturn a 2-0 deficit against SC Braga. After LASK’s historic qualification for the Champions League, Austria could therefore secure several more places in the European league phases within the space of 48 hours.
